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From Covid-19 to the war in Ukraine: Europe's macroeconomic policies in times of disruption

Social Sciences Conference Wednesday, 25 May 2022, 15:00 hours Madrid

General information:

MORNING SESSION:

In person: Fundación Ramón Areces - salón de actos. Calle Vitruvio, 5. 28006. Madrid and live streaming through www.fundacionareces.tv/directo

Free admission. Necessary previous online registration. Limited capacity. Simultaneous interpretation..

AFTERNOON SESSION:

Live streaming through  www.fundacionareces.tv/directo

Organized by:

Fundación Ramón Areces, Observatorio del BCE and Center for Economic and Policy Research

  • Description
  • Programme
  • Speaker/s

A hybrid Conference organised by the Observatory of the ECB and Ramon Areces Foundation on the occasion of the 20th Anniversary of the German Bernacer Prize, awarded annually to young European economists who have made outstanding contributions in the fields of macroeconomics and finance.

Summary

To mark the 20th anniversary of the creation of the German Bernacer Prize a group of leading European economists will discuss how Europe’s macroeconomic policies should respond to the exceptional challenges posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The speakers include four prize winners: Philip Lane, member of ECB’s Executive Board; Benjamin Moll, Professor at LSE; Jose Manuel Campa, Chairperson of the European Banking Authority; and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of Research of the IMF, as well as several members of the Selection Committee in different editions over the history of the prize: Charles Goodhart Emeritus Professor at LSE; Otmar Issing, President of the Center for Financial Studies; Vitor Constancio, former Vice president of the ECB and Lucrezia Reichlin, Professor at London Business School.

Morning session 11:30-13.30 CET: ECB’s monetary policy challenges

In the morning session, the discussion will focus on ECB's monetary policy challenges. The war has triggered the worst global food and energy crisis in decades, exacerbating post-pandemic inflation and supply chains disruptions which are being further aggravated by Covid-19 lockdowns in China. How should the ECB manage these multiple shocks that push inflation well about its target without causing a recession? What can be the additional impact on Europe’s inflation and growth of the embargo on Russian energy imports? Are the record levels of public and private debt, a legacy of the pandemic, constraining the speed of monetary policy normalization? What are the main similarities and differences between the current juncture and the 1970’s?

Afternoon Session 15:00-16:30 CET: Preparing the EU to confront the challenges ahead

In the afternoon Session we will discuss whether the EU has the policy tools and institutions to confront the exceptional challenges ahead. What could be the impact of the war and sanctions against Russia on the European financial sector and how to make it stronger and more resilient? Against the background of high levels of public and private debt and further pressures on public spending (on security and defense, refugee crisis, energy decoupling from Russia, support to vulnerable firms and households, financial assistance to Ukraine…), what should be the proper response of fiscal policies at national and supranational level? What will be the geopolitical impact of the war on globalization, the International Monetary System and the role of the euro?

Wednesday,  25 May

MORNING SESSION - ECB’s monetary policy challenges

11:00 h.

Attendees check-in

11:30 h.

Welcome address

Raimundo Pérez-Hernández y Torra 
Director of Fundación Ramón Areces.

 11:35 h.

Introductory remarks

Pablo Hernández de Cos
Governor of the Bank of Spain.

11:45 h.

Keynote address

Philip Lane
Member of the Executive Board of the ECB. Winner of the first edition of the Bernacer Prize. 

12:05 h.

Discussion panel

A severe test of monetary policy

Charles Goodhart
Emeritus Professor, LSE (Member of the Selection Committee in the first and 20th editions of the Bernacer Prize).

 

Structural changes – challenges for monetary policy

Otmar Issing
President of the Center for Financial Studies (Chair of the Selection Committee in the first edition of the Bernacer Prize).

 

Energy sanctions against Russia: What options does the EU have and how costly are they?

Benjamin Moll
Professor at LSE (Winner of the 17th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

 

Moderator:
María Tadeo
Bloomberg.

 

12:35 h.

Discussion between the four speakers and Q&A. Lead Questions by:

Ricardo Reis
Professor at LSE (Winner of the 16th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

Stephanie Smith Grohe
Professor at Columbia University (Winner of the 4th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Professor at Columbia University (Winner of the 15th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

Lukas Karabarbounis
Professor at University of Minnesota (Winner of the 19th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

 

13:30 h.

Break

AFTERNOON SESSION  - Preparing the EU to confront the challenges ahead (streaming)

 15:00 h.

Round table

Banking and financial stability challenges

José Manuel Campa
Chairperson of the EBA (Winner of the second edition of the Bernacer Price).

 

Macroeconomic challenges

Vítor Constâncio
Former ECB Vice president (Chair of the Bernacer Selection Committee from 11th to 16th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

 

The fiscal and monetary response to the war

Lucrezia Reichlin
Professor at LBS (Member of the Selection Committee from 19th to 20th edition to the Bernacer Prize).

 

Russia’s war in Ukraine, globalization and the International Monetary System

Jean-Pierre Olivier Gourinchas
Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at IMF (Winner of the 7th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

 

Moderator:
Martin Sandbu
Financial Times.

 

Lead Questions by: 

Ralph Koijen
Professor at University of Chicago Booth School of Business (Winner of the 20th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

Evi Pappa
Professor at Universidad Carlos III (Member of the Selection Committee).

Veronica Guerrieri
Professor at University of Chicago Booth School of Business (Winner of the 14th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

Markus Brunnermeier
Professor at Princeton University (Winner of the 8th edition of the Bernacer Prize).

16:15 h.

Concluding remarks

Guillermo de la Dehesa
President of the OBCE.

   Philip R. Lane

Philip R. Lane joined the ECB as a Member of the Executive Board in 2019. He is responsible for the Directorate General Economics and the Directorate General Monetary Policy. Before joining the ECB, he was the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also chaired the Advisory Scientific Committee and Advisory Technical Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board and was Whately Professor of Political Economy at Trinity College Dublin. He is also a research fellow at the CEPR. A graduate of Trinity College Dublin, he was awarded a PhD in Economics from Harvard University in 1995 and was Assistant Professor at Columbia from 1995 to 1997, before returning to Dublin. In 2001 he was the inaugural recipient of the Bernacer Prize for outstanding contributions to European monetary economics. 

   Charles Goodhart

Charles Goodhart is Professor Emeritus at the London School of Economics (LSE) after a long career as Norman Sosnow Professor of Bank and Finance at this Institution. He is Fellow of the British Academy and Commander of the Order of the British Empire for his contribution to the monetary economy. Before joining LSE, he worked as a monetary economist at the Bank of England. Following his advice to Hong Kong on how to overcome the financial crisis, he joined the advisory committee of the Hong Kong Sovereign Wealth Fund (HK Exchange Fund) until 1997, when he was appointed as one of the four external members of the then newly formed monetary policy committee of the Bank of England. He has written numerous articles on monetary policy and macroeconomics. He was Member of Bernacer Price Jury in the first and 20th editions.

    Otmar Issing

Otmar Issing is President of the Center for Financial Studies and Chairman Kuratorium House of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt. He held chairs of economics at the University Erlangen-Nuremberg and Wuerzburg. He was a member of the Council of Economic Experts and the Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, with a seat at the Central Bank Council. From 1998-2006 he was a founding member of the Executive Board of the ECB, responsible for the Directorates General Economics and Research. He has Honorary Doctorates from the Universities Bayreuth, Frankfurt, and Konstanz. He was Head of the Advisory Group on the New Financial Order appointed by Chancellor Merkel and member of the High-Level Group of the European Commission chaired by J.De Larosiere. In 2017 he was appointed member of the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance. He is Honorary Professor of the Universities of Frankfurt and Wuerzburg and was (inter alia) International Advisor to Goldman Sachs (2006-2018). He has published many articles in academic journals and is the author of two textbooks. He was Chair of the Jury in the first edition of the Bernacer Prize.

    Benjamin Moll 

Benjamin Moll is Professor of Economics at the LSE after holding different professorships at Princeton University. He earned a BSc in economics from University College London in 2005, followed by a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago. Afterwards he joined Princeton University as Assistant Professor, Associate Professor and, finally, Full Professor. In 2019, he moved to the LSE. His research concentrates in three main topics: cross-country income differences, heterogeneity in macroeconomics and mean-field game theory. He won the 17th edition of the Bernacer Prize.

   Vítor Constâncio

Vítor Constâncio was Vice-President of the European Central Bank from 2010 to 2018. In the Portuguese Government, he was Secretary of State for the Budget and Planning and Finance Minister. At the Central Bank of Portugal, he was Director of the Economics Department, Deputy Governor and then, from 2000 to 2010, Governor and, consequently, member of the ECB Governing Council. He was Assistant Professor at the Lisbon School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, and later coordinator of the Master´s degree on Monetary Policy. He is now President of the School Board at ISEG and Professor at the Master's Degree in Banking and Financial Regulation at the School of Economics, University of Navarra and member of the University Advisory Board. He was the Chair of the Bernacer jury from the 11th to the 16th edition.

   Lucrezia Reichlin

Lucrezia Reichlin is Professor of Economics at London Business School, Chair of the European Corporate Governance Institute, Trustee of the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation and Trustee of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Chairman and co-founder of Now-Casting Economics Ltd. She published numerous papers on econometrics and macroeconomics. She is an expert on forecasting, business cycle analysis and monetary policy and pioneered now-casting in economics by developing econometrics methods capable of reading the real time data flow through the lenses of a formal econometric model. These methods are now widely used by central banks and private investors around the world. She was member of the jury in the19thand 20th editions to the Bernacer Prize.

    José Manuel Campa

José Manuel Campa is Chairperson of the European Banking Authority (EBA). After studying law and economics at the University of Oviedo and earning his PhD in economics from Harvard University, Mr. Campa taught finance at New York University and the IESE Business School and consulted for several international organizations including the World Bank, the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements and the European Commission. He then served as the 10th Secretary of State for Economy of the Spanish government and was most recently Director of Regulatory affairs of the Santander Bank. He was winner of the second edition of the Bernacer Price in recognition for his abundant research work.

    Jean-Pierre Olivier Gourinchas

Jean-Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, is the Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF. He taught at Stanford Graduate School of Business and Princeton University before joining UC Berkeley department of economics in 2003. Professor Gourinchas' main research interests are in international macroeconomics and finance. His recent research focuses on the scarcity of global safe assets, global imbalances and currency wars, on the International Monetary System and the role of the U.S. dollar; on the global financial crisis and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures. He attended Ecole Polytechnique and received his PhD in Economics in 1996 from MIT. Professor Gourinchas is the laureate of the 7th edition of the Bernacer Prize.

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