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Climate change, inequality and forced migration. Responsibility along global value chains.

20th National Competition for Economic Research Grants (2021)

Economic analysis

Senior Researcher : Guadalupe Arce González

Research Centre or Institution : Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha. Albacete.


Climate change represents one of the most critical challenges facing humanity. The planet i already suffering some of the consequences predicted by expert panels of increasing temperatures, changes in precipitation, and the likelihood of extreme weather events. The challenge now is to find solutions to reduce the risks and adapt to the coming climate changes. Different world regions are experimenting a variety of climate change impacts with different levels of severity. However, the most vulnerable regions and populations are suffering most of the direct consequences of climate change in the form of natural disasters, droughts, desertification, etc. These consequences derived from global warming have already generated intense migratory processes, mainly from developing countries. The United Nations Organization predicts that up to 250 million people could be forcibly displaced due to climate change by 2050. This type of migration is forced and inevitable, so new models, concepts, and policies are needed to improve humanitarian responses to climate change.

With this project, we intend to tackle the challenge of forced climatic migrations by providing new scientific evidence and more accurate characterization of the expected migratory flows to the literature and institutions. The first objective is to develop a database of climatic migrations associated with climatic causes. The second objective aims to analyze the relationship between inequality and vulnerability with forced migrations due to climate change. In this case, we will relate the results with the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals at a global level. The third objective proposes to identify the countries and agents responsible, in historical terms, for climate change. Therefore, the objective is to identify the countries responsible for such forced migrations and, in line with the proposals of the 2030 Agenda, make the challenge an opportunity by generating opportunities for migrants and recipient countries in reducing inequalities and mitigating climate change. Along the same lines, in the fourth objective is the evaluation of the impacts on the sustainability, understood in a broad sense, economic, social, and environmental, of the “footprint of migrants” derived from the establishment of reception quotas for forced migrants for climatic reasons in developed countries.

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